March 3, 2025 by Thomas Isenovski (‘26)
You may have heard about the infamous asteroid “YR4 2024” that NASA recently recorded had a 3.1% chance to strike earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid is around 90 meters in width and was deemed a “City Killer” by many astronomers-scary. With the projected impact corridor including major population centers such as Mumbai and Ibadan, people in these areas were reported to have had a nervous energy about the rare, “higher” than usual chance of a strike.
However, NASA recently stated that their team has significantly lowered the chance of a strike from the asteroid in 2032 or beyond to practically zero. These new findings have cooled down the recent scare about asteroids. Even though this asteroid is no longer a threat, Nasa was able to collect more information on asteroids in close proximity to earth, crucially contributing to ongoing studies. “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity for experts at NASA and its partner institutions to test planetary defense science and notification processes” said NASA in a recent report.
After this incident, this is a perfect time to mention two other potentially hazardous objects near earth, and some ways that we can utilize these objects and prevent them from striking earth if one was to be headed toward our planet.
The asteroid Apophis 99942 is another near-Earth asteroid that was discovered in 2004. It is estimated to be around 340 meters in width. At the time of its discovery, the asteroid was deemed by NASA a potential threat to impact earth. But, as recently as 2021, an impact made by this mass has been ruled out entirely. Nevertheless, on April 13, 2029, the asteroid is calculated to have a near earth flyby, one of the closest fly-bys made by an object of this magnitude in recorded history. Apophis is predicted to come within 31,860 Kilometers of Earth’s surface, closer than some Geosynchronous satellites surrounding earth. This will be an amazing opportunity for scientists to gather information on objects like Apophis, without the worries of an impact. During this fly-by, Apophis is recorded to also be visible to the naked eye in the eastern hemisphere.
Apophis asteroid: source-http://abiks.eu/
Another asteroid is Bennu 101955. This asteroid is thought to be over 4.5 billion years old! Scientists from the OSIRIS-REx sample analysis team managed to secure a 4.3-ounce sample of Bennu in September 2023 and later concluded that Bennu has a composite made of the same materials that formed our solar system.
Top: Photographed surface of the asteroid bennu-photo source:space.com
Bottom: Bennu Asteroid, photographed by NASA- Image credit: NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona)
This was a remarkable accomplishment and is a good segue to a hypothetical topic involving asteroids:asteroid mining. So, what is asteroid mining? Asteroid mining is “a proposed approach to mining critical elements from these small bodies,” said mit.edu. It has been considered “hypothetical” since no company or research team has actually put this process to test yet.
This success from the OSIRIS team on Bennu may shed some more light on the topic.The process of extracting materials from Asteroids is thought to have extreme benefits for the earth. It would prevent the extensive pollution of generally practiced In-ground mining. It would also give our planet access to rare earth metals, found in “everything from smartphones and laptops to electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies,” states m-mtoday.com. It could also aid the expansion of the space industry and reduce our dependence on earth’s resources said m-mtoday.com
Although beneficial, asteroid mining has an extremely high, and some say, impractical price tag. The OSIRIS-REx mission cost a total of over $1 billion USD. So, more extensive and commercialized asteroid mining with today’s technology would cost billions if not trillions of dollars.But if the work is done, and humans can successfully create a business, these costs can potentially be offset by the immense raw minerals that these asteroids can hold.
There is also another con to this theory however, as an influx of Gold and other rare materials into the global market could plummet the price of these goods entirely. Tel Aviv University did a simulation study on asteroid mining, and the results were a devalue of the raw materials market by 50 percent, and a shrivel in the economies of nations who rely on standard mining methods. Traditional miners could be left jobless if an asteroid mining industry took over.
Overall, there are several pros and cons of asteroid mining. There is great opportunity, but if not done correctly, there can be serious consequences for the earth and its economy. In present times, the industry seems to be too far of a reach for current technology, but the industry has the potential to entangle with our future generations’ lives.
Economics of the Stars: The Future of Asteroid Mining and the Global Economy
Cost of OSIRIS-REx | The Planetary Society